Al Urooba 0-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Urooba face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Urooba host Sharjah FC at Dibba Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025 at 13:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba's home record at Dibba Stadium: 1W 0D 7L from 8 Pro League appearances (0.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 2.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Urooba register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Sharjah FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Urooba have won 0, Sharjah FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Urooba in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 47% versus Sharjah FC 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Urooba 71% | Sharjah FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.04 xG and Sharjah FC 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.918 / defence 1.585 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.408. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Al Urooba games / 42 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 17% | Draw 19% | Sharjah FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Sharjah FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 75% | Sharjah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 13:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 17% | Draw 19% | Sharjah FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Urooba 1.04 / Sharjah FC 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.918 / def 1.585 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Sharjah FC xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 13:35 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Al Urooba 0 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 17% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Urooba and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Sharjah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 2W.
What form are Al Urooba and Sharjah FC in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Urooba's attack rating (0.92) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
17%
6.00
19%
5.17
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.26
2.22
Sharjah FC xG
6.00
17%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
11%
9.20
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
2%
55.18
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al Urooba and 2.22 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 1W 0D 16L from 17 games, a 0.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 1D 3L across 17 games — 2.35 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 2.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Urooba have managed 1W 0D 7L from 8 games — 0.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 5W 1D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Urooba are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 2.82 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.82 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 16L in their last 17 games (0.18 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 13W 1D 3L in their last 17 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 0.38 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Urooba or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Urooba have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sharjah FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Sharjah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al Urooba 0-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 75%, Sharjah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Urooba and 50% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Urooba's games and 50% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Urooba's matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Urooba and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al Urooba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Urooba 0-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.04 xG and Sharjah FC 2.22 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Urooba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.92 / defence 1.58 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.71, drawn from 17/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 17% | Draw 19% | Sharjah FC 64%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 71%, Sharjah FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Urooba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.