Chornomorets 1-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Lviv at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Chornomorets have posted 0W 2D 3L from their last 5 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lviv — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lviv's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across their last 4 road games (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus Lviv's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 54% versus Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 82% | Lviv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.99 xG and Lviv 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.714 / defence 1.407 | Lviv attack 0.796 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.166. Chornomorets's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Lviv's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chornomorets's projected output up. Lviv's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Chornomorets's defence rating of 1.407 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 11 games and Lviv's last 11.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 29% | Lviv 43%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.58 | Draw 3.50 | Lviv 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lviv at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 40% (last 5 home games) | Lviv 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 29% | Lviv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Chornomorets 0.99 / Lviv 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.714 / def 1.407 | Lviv attack 0.796 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lviv xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Lviv FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Lviv kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Chornomorets 1 - 1 Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 28% chance of winning, Lviv a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chornomorets and Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Chornomorets vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.71) and Lviv's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 11 games and Lviv's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
28%
3.58
29%
3.50
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.30
1.31
Lviv xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.31 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Lviv's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.55 PPG, Lviv on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 0.50 PPG from their last 4 home games (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets (Home) vs Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Chornomorets vs Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Lviv have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Lviv away?
Lviv's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.50 PPG; Lviv away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Lviv?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 2, Lviv have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2023: Lviv 0-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Lviv?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 50% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 50% of games; Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chornomorets and Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 50% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets and Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and Lviv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.99 xG and Lviv 1.31 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.71 / defence 1.41 against Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 28% | Draw 29% | Lviv 43%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 82%, Lviv 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lviv's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.55 PPG, Lviv 0.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.