FC Kharkiv 4-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Inhulets travel to Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 3W 0D 2L at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
FC Kharkiv are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 40% versus Inhulets 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 40% | Inhulets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.30 xG and Inhulets 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.954 / defence 1.204 | Inhulets attack 0.637 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.185. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 FC Kharkiv games / 10 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 45% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 3.85. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 60% | Inhulets 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 45% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.30 / Inhulets 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.954 / def 1.204 | Inhulets attack 0.637 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Inhulets xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
FC Kharkiv 4 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 45% chance of winning, Inhulets a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Inhulets in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Inhulets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.95) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.47
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.21
0.91
Inhulets xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.91 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 1D 5L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.90 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Inhulets away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Inhulets away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Inhulets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Inhulets 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Kharkiv) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 50% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant FC Kharkiv run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Inhulets 4-0 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.30 xG and Inhulets 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inhulets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.95 / defence 1.20 against Inhulets attack 0.64 / defence 1.31, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 45% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 26%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 40%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Inhulets's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.