Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 2D 0L this season (7 games, 2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 3W 2D 0L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 5 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vorskla Poltava at 2.30 PPG versus Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 46% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.17 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.410 / defence 1.025 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.180 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.157. Vorskla Poltava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Vorskla Poltava games / 11 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 31% | Draw 27% | Shakhtar Donetsk 42%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Vorskla Poltava 43% | Shakhtar Donetsk 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 31% | Draw 27% | Shakhtar Donetsk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.17 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.410 / def 1.025 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.180 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 31% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.67
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.56
1.40
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.40 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 7W 3D 1L from 11 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 1L across 11 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 2.18 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk on 2.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vorskla Poltava have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.18 PPG overall — Vorskla Poltava are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 3W 2D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.64 scored and 0.55 conceded. Vorskla Poltava's scoring rate against Shakhtar Donetsk's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.60 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vorskla Poltava 40% BTTS, Shakhtar Donetsk 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Vorskla Poltava and 60% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 20% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 60% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Vorskla Poltava 0-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.17 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.40 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.41 / defence 1.02 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.18 / defence 0.77, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 31% | Draw 27% | Shakhtar Donetsk 42%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 46%, Shakhtar Donetsk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 2.18 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.