Desna 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Desna vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Oleksandria travel to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv to take on Desna. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Desna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Desna have gone 4W 0D 2L this season (6 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Desna are significantly better at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 3W 3D 2L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Desna 1.40 PPG, Oleksandria 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Desna trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 36% versus Oleksandria 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 64% | Oleksandria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 0.95 xG and Oleksandria 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.985 / defence 1.253 | Oleksandria attack 0.742 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.187. Data: 11 Desna games / 11 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39%. Fair-value odds: Desna 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Oleksandria 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Desna 33% | Oleksandria 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Desna 0.95 / Oleksandria 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.985 / def 1.253 | Oleksandria attack 0.742 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Oleksandria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs Oleksandria kick off?
Desna vs Oleksandria kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Oleksandria?
Desna 1 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Desna vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Oleksandria part of?
Desna vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 31% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Desna and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Desna and Oleksandria in?
Desna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Desna's attack at 0.98x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
31%
3.24
30%
3.31
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Desna xG
Total xG
2.05
1.10
Oleksandria xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Desna and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Desna and 1.10 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Desna come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 2D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Desna on 1.55 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Desna's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Desna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Desna are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Desna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Oleksandria away?
Desna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 2.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Desna or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
1
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Oleksandria?
From 1 meetings on record, Desna have won 0, Oleksandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2021, when Desna 1-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Desna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 33%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Desna) and 33% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Oleksandria in 33%; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Desna's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Desna vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Desna's recent games and 33% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Desna and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 12, as Desna and Oleksandria drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 0.95 xG and Oleksandria 1.10 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Oleksandria attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 64%, Oleksandria 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Desna 1.55 PPG, Oleksandria 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.