Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home, Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ratchaburi away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior, 0.90 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Ratchaburi and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Lamphun Warrior 1–1 Ratchaburi — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 39% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 39% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 42% | Ratchaburi 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.902 / defence 1.077 | Ratchaburi attack 0.787 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.140. Ratchaburi's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 36 games and Ratchaburi's last 36.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.06 | Draw 3.63 | Ratchaburi 4.18. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.48 / Ratchaburi 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.902 / def 1.077 | Ratchaburi attack 0.787 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ratchaburi xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 6 October 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.90) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.79x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 36 games and Ratchaburi's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.63
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.45
0.97
Ratchaburi xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.97 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 10W 9D 17L from 36 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 12L across 36 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.33 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 7W 5D 6L from their last 18 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across their last 18 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Ratchaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ratchaburi away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.44 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 5-0 Lamphun Warrior on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 50%, Ratchaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamphun Warrior) and 28% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 39% of games; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 28% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 39% of Ratchaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi finished level at 1-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Ratchaburi attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 42%, Ratchaburi 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.08 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.