Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mae Guang Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior, 0.90 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Ratchaburi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 39% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 42% | Ratchaburi 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.902 / defence 1.077 | Ratchaburi attack 0.787 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.140. Data: 36 Lamphun Warrior games / 36 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Ratchaburi 4.17. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.48 / Ratchaburi 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.902 / def 1.077 | Ratchaburi attack 0.787 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ratchaburi xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.90) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.79x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.63
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.45
0.97
Ratchaburi xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.97 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 10W 9D 17L from 36 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 12L across 36 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.33 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ratchaburi away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.44 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 50%, Ratchaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamphun Warrior) and 28% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 39% of games; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 28% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi finished level at 1-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Ratchaburi attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 42%, Ratchaburi 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.08 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.