Uthai Thani 1-5 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — All Games: 2W 0D 4L from 6 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 1W 0D 2L at Uthai Thani Province Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 33% and Port FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Uthai Thani 50% | Port FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.699 / defence 1.277 | Port FC attack 1.216 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.140. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Uthai Thani games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 25% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.04. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 33% | Port FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 25% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Uthai Thani 1.23 / Port FC 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.699 / def 1.277 | Port FC attack 1.216 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Port FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Port FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 5 Port FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 25% chance of winning, Port FC a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
25%
3.92
25%
3.95
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.00
1.77
Port FC xG
3.92
25%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
4%
23.06
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.77 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 0D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 3.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.00 PPG; Port FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Port FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 33%, Port FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Uthai Thani and 100% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Uthai Thani's games and 100% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Uthai Thani's matches and 100% of Port FC's.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Port FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Uthai Thani 1-5 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.70 / defence 1.28 against Port FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 25% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Port FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.