Police Tero 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Police Tero and Prachuap meet at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Boonyachinda Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Police Tero, 1.20 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Police Tero register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Prachuap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Police Tero 1W, Prachuap 0W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Police Tero — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 67% and Prachuap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 64% | Prachuap 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 2.00 xG and Prachuap 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.084 / defence 1.160 | Prachuap attack 1.106 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.210. Data: 36 Police Tero games / 36 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 48% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 29%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Prachuap 3.45. Police Tero hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 70% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 48% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Police Tero 2.00 / Prachuap 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.084 / def 1.160 | Prachuap attack 1.106 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Prachuap xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Prachuap kick off?
Police Tero vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Police Tero 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Police Tero vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Prachuap part of?
Police Tero vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 48% chance of winning, Prachuap a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Police Tero and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Prachuap?
Record (4 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 3 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Prachuap in?
Police Tero (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 1.08x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.11x) against Police Tero's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.35
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.55
1.55
Prachuap xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
4%
25.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.55 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 11D 12L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.11 PPG from 36 outings (10W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Police Tero against 1.11 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 8W 7D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.44 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Prachuap in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Prachuap away?
Police Tero's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.72 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
4
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Prachuap have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Prachuap 2-0 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 61%, Prachuap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Police Tero and 67% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Police Tero's games and 67% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Police Tero's matches and 67% of Prachuap's.
Do Police Tero and Prachuap tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Police Tero and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 2.00 xG and Prachuap 1.55 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Prachuap attack 1.11 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 48% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 29%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 64%, Prachuap 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.39 PPG, Prachuap 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.