Ratchaburi 3-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 75%, yet in-form Trat FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trat FC make the trip to Dragon Solar Park to face Ratchaburi in Thai League 1 (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
In front of their own supporters, Ratchaburi have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Trat FC (all games): 1W 3D 1L across their last 5 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trat FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Ratchaburi over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Trat FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 40% versus Trat FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 40% | Trat FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.38 xG and Trat FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.140 / defence 0.974 | Trat FC attack 0.666 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.053. Trat FC's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 35 games and Trat FC's last 5.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 75% | Draw 17% | Trat FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.34 | Draw 5.95 | Trat FC 11.89. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trat FC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 60% (last 10 home games) | Trat FC 40% (last 5 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 75% | Draw 17% | Trat FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ratchaburi 2.38 / Trat FC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.140 / def 0.974 | Trat FC attack 0.666 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Trat FC xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Trat FC FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Trat FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Trat FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Ratchaburi 3 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Trat FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Trat FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 75% chance of winning, Trat FC a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ratchaburi and Trat FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ratchaburi vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Trat FC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.67x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 35 games and Trat FC's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.95
8%
11.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.07
0.68
Trat FC xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
11.89
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
9%
10.83
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
1%
128.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Trat FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.68 for Trat FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Trat FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.20 for Trat FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Trat FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Trat FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Trat FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Trat FC
Early Season
❓ Ratchaburi vs Trat FC Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Trat FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Trat FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Trat FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Trat FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 1, Trat FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Trat FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2024: Trat FC 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Trat FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 40%, Trat FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ratchaburi) and 60% (Trat FC).
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 40%; Ratchaburi have failed to score in 60% of games; Trat FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Trat FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Trat FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 40% of Trat FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ratchaburi and Trat FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 60% of Trat FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Trat FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 60% of Trat FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trat FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Trat FC 3-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.38 xG and Trat FC 0.68 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Trat FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 75% | Draw 17% | Trat FC 8%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 40%, Trat FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 0.80 PPG, Trat FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Trat FC shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.