Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Orgryte IS to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 4D 4L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Orgryte IS — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Varbergs BoIS FC at 1.30 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 50% versus Orgryte IS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 59% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.91 xG and Orgryte IS 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.821 / defence 1.162 | Orgryte IS attack 0.938 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 0.908. Data: 6 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 36 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 36%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Orgryte IS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | Orgryte IS 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.91 / Orgryte IS 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.821 / def 1.162 | Orgryte IS attack 0.938 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.290 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Orgryte IS xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 32% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.10
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.90
0.99
Orgryte IS xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.99 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 7D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.16 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (6W 2D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.09 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Orgryte IS away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, Orgryte IS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 44% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 31%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 44% of games; Orgryte IS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 44% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 44% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.91 xG and Orgryte IS 0.99 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Orgryte IS attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 36%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 59%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.