Orgryte IS 0-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Helsingborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 7 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Helsingborg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.60 PPG versus Helsingborg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Helsingborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for Helsingborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2023, ended 3–2 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 55% versus Helsingborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Helsingborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.49 xG and Helsingborg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.031 / defence 1.380 | Helsingborg attack 1.120 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 0.911. Data: 35 Orgryte IS games / 35 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | Helsingborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Orgryte IS 1.49 / Helsingborg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.031 / def 1.380 | Helsingborg attack 1.120 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.274 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Helsingborg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 7 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Orgryte IS 0 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 38% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Orgryte IS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
Record (4 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.03x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.75
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.89
1.41
Helsingborg xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.41 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 18D 23L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 12W 14D 34L from 60 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 4W 8D 18L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 0.90 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 12W 14D 34L in their last 60 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Helsingborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2021, when Helsingborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
4
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Helsingborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 57%, Helsingborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Orgryte IS) and 50% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Orgryte IS's games and 57% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 50% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helsingborg defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Orgryte IS 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.49 xG and Helsingborg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.03 / defence 1.38 against Helsingborg attack 1.12 / defence 1.13, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 35%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, Helsingborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Helsingborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.