Sandviken 3-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandviken face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Arena Jernvallen to face Sandviken in Superettan (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Sandviken (all games): 1W 0D 1L across their last 2 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.22 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.806 / defence 1.017 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.810 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 0.927. Data: built from Sandviken's last 7 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 7.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 45% | Draw 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.21 | Draw 3.00 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.66. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Sandviken's last 2 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, matchday 8 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 45% | Draw 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Sandviken 1.22 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.806 / def 1.017 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.810 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.298 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC FAQs
What time does Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sandviken 3 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Superettan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 45% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sandviken's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.81x) against Sandviken's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Sandviken's last 7 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
45%
2.21
33%
3.00
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sandviken xG
Total xG
1.98
0.76
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.76 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W.
Put side by side, Varbergs BoIS FC are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandviken.
Attack vs Defence
Sandviken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Sandviken (Home) vs Varbergs BoIS FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
❓ Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC Form FAQs
What form are Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sandviken
2
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandviken have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandviken's games and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandviken's matches and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Sandviken's recent matches and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.22 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.76 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 45% | Draw 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.