GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 60% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.24 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.052 / defence 1.002 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.214 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 0.908. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 GIF Sundsvall games / 36 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 32%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Landskrona BoIS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.24 / Landskrona BoIS 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.052 / def 1.002 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.214 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.290 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 39% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.05) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.51
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.34
1.10
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.10 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 13W 10D 37L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 22W 17D 21L from 60 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (9W 5D 16L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 games (0.82 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.07 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 67%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for GIF Sundsvall and 57% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat GIF Sundsvall 1-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.24 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.10 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 32%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 60%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.