Trelleborg 1-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trelleborg face Oddevold.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Trelleborg welcome Oddevold to Vångavallen in Superettan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Trelleborg have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.75 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.934 / defence 1.107 | Oddevold attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.168. Data: built from Trelleborg's last 30 games and Oddevold's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 24%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.90 | Draw 4.25 | Oddevold 4.21. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Trelleborg 30 games, Oddevold 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, matchday 1 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Trelleborg 1.75 / Oddevold 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.934 / def 1.107 | Oddevold attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Oddevold xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trelleborg vs Oddevold FAQs
What time does Trelleborg vs Oddevold kick off?
Trelleborg vs Oddevold kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Trelleborg 1 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is Trelleborg vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Oddevold part of?
Trelleborg vs Oddevold is a Superettan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 53% chance of winning, Oddevold a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trelleborg and Oddevold will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trelleborg vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.93) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trelleborg's last 30 games and Oddevold's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.25
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.10
Oddevold xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
4%
24.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trelleborg vs Oddevold Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.10 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Trelleborg (Home) vs Oddevold (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when Trelleborg won Oddevold 0-3 Trelleborg.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
1
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Trelleborg vs Oddevold H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Trelleborg have won 1, Oddevold have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Oddevold last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2025: Oddevold 3-2 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.75 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Oddevold attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 24%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.