Trelleborg 1-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Trelleborg welcome Oddevold to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.75 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.934 / defence 1.107 | Oddevold attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.168. Data: 30 Trelleborg games / 0 Oddevold games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 24%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Oddevold 4.17. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Trelleborg 1.75 / Oddevold 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.934 / def 1.107 | Oddevold attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Oddevold xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Oddevold kick off?
Trelleborg vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Trelleborg 1 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is Trelleborg vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Oddevold part of?
Trelleborg vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 53% chance of winning, Oddevold a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trelleborg and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Oddevold in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Trelleborg home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.93) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.25
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.10
Oddevold xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
4%
24.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.10 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Oddevold runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Trelleborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
1
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Oddevold have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Oddevold 3-2 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.75 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Oddevold attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 24%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.