IK brage 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IK brage (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 7W 1D 2L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for IK brage against 1.30 for Varbergs BoIS FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IK brage have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
IK brage — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 44% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 53% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.06 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.134 / defence 0.962 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.229. Data: 30 IK brage games / 0 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IK brage 62% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Varbergs BoIS FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 62% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG IK brage 2.06 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.134 / def 0.962 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: IK brage (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
IK brage 1 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 62% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IK brage's attack at 1.13x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.85x) against IK brage's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.84
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.06
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
2%
44.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for IK brage and 1.00 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IK brage's recent record stands at 12W 5D 15L from 32 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 15L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for IK brage against 1.16 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 10W 2D 4L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 5W 2D 9L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IK brage are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 12W 5D 15L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
IK brage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 2.00 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IK brage
2
Draws
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when IK brage 2-2 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for IK brage and 62% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of IK brage's games and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of IK brage's matches and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do IK brage and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.06 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 62% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.28 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.