Oddevold 0-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Rimnersvallen to face Oddevold in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 8 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.16 xG and Orgryte IS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.869 / defence 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.016 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.014. Data: 1 Oddevold games / 31 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 37%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Orgryte IS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Oddevold 1.16 / Orgryte IS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.869 / def 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.016 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Orgryte IS xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Oddevold vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Oddevold 0 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Oddevold vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Orgryte IS part of?
Oddevold vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 35% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Oddevold and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Orgryte IS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Orgryte IS away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.02x) against Oddevold's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.56
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.34
1.18
Orgryte IS xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.18 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oddevold
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Oddevold's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 2, as Oddevold and Orgryte IS drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.16 xG and Orgryte IS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Orgryte IS attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 37%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.