Gefle IF 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gefle IF vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gefle IF and Trelleborg meet at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gefle IF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gefle IF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gavlevallen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trelleborg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gefle IF, 0 for Trelleborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Gefle IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Trelleborg half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 55% versus Trelleborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 52% | Trelleborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.32 xG and Trelleborg 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.877 / defence 1.385 | Trelleborg attack 1.126 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Data: 29 Gefle IF games / 59 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 26% | Draw 22% | Trelleborg 51%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Trelleborg 1.96. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 50% | Trelleborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 26% | Draw 22% | Trelleborg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Gefle IF 1.32 / Trelleborg 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.877 / def 1.385 | Trelleborg attack 1.126 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Trelleborg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Gefle IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Gefle IF 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Gefle IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Gefle IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 26% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gefle IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 1W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Gefle IF and Trelleborg in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 0.88x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.13x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
26%
3.78
22%
4.49
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.23
1.91
Trelleborg xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.47
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.91 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Gefle IF have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 9W 9D 11L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 10W 8D 11L from 29 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.31 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gefle IF have posted 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gefle IF are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.34 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.71 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
2
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when Trelleborg 1-0 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 50%, Trelleborg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gefle IF) and 57% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gefle IF's games and 71% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Gefle IF's matches and 57% of Trelleborg's.
Do Gefle IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF and Trelleborg finished level at 1-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.32 xG and Trelleborg 1.91 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.39 against Trelleborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 26% | Draw 22% | Trelleborg 51%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 52%, Trelleborg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.24 PPG, Trelleborg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.