Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Orgryte IS in Superettan (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Landskrona BoIS's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Landskrona BoIS at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Landskrona BoIS's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Jun 2023, ended Landskrona BoIS 1–0 Orgryte IS — a Landskrona BoIS win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 61% versus Orgryte IS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | Orgryte IS 54%). Note also that Orgryte IS surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Landskrona BoIS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.43 xG and Orgryte IS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.952 / defence 1.019 | Orgryte IS attack 0.845 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 59 games and Orgryte IS's last 59.

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.20 | Draw 3.77 | Orgryte IS 3.59. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights