Gais 0-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gais vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utsikten make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Utsikten (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Gais's favour (2.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gais 1W, Utsikten 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Utsikten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 45% versus Utsikten 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 62% | Utsikten 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.88 xG and Utsikten 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.116 / defence 0.964 | Utsikten attack 0.868 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Data: 29 Gais games / 59 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 57% | Draw 22% | Utsikten 20%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Utsikten 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Gais (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gais 50% | Utsikten 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 57% | Draw 22% | Utsikten 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Gais 1.88 / Utsikten 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.116 / def 0.964 | Utsikten attack 0.868 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Gais (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Utsikten xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Utsikten kick off?
Gais vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Utsikten?
Gais 0 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Gais vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Utsikten part of?
Gais vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 57% chance of winning, Utsikten a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gais and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Utsikten?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 0W.
What form are Gais and Utsikten in?
Gais (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Utsikten (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gais's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (0.87x) against Gais's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.48
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Gais xG
Total xG
2.91
1.02
Utsikten xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
32.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Gais and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Gais and 1.02 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Utsikten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Gais have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 17W 6D 6L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Utsikten's form line: 15W 7D 7L from 29 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Gais against 1.79 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gais have posted 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 6W 3D 5L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.69 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 17W 6D 6L in their last 29 games (1.97 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 15W 7D 7L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Utsikten away?
Gais's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.07 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Gais or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Utsikten in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gais
0
Draws
1
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Utsikten?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Utsikten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when Gais 0-1 Utsikten.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 43%, Utsikten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gais) and 43% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Utsikten in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gais's recent matches and 43% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Gais's recent games and 43% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Utsikten tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utsikten defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.88 xG and Utsikten 1.02 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Utsikten attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 57% | Draw 22% | Utsikten 20%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Utsikten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 62%, Utsikten 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Utsikten's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.97 PPG, Utsikten 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.