United Nordic 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this United Nordic vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Relegation Round sees Orgryte IS travel to Södertälje Fotbollsarena to take on United Nordic. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Orgryte IS — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects United Nordic 1.23 xG and Orgryte IS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: United Nordic attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 0.936 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.195. Data: 0 United Nordic games / 60 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: United Nordic 35% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 38%. Fair-value odds: United Nordic 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: United Nordic vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Södertälje Fotbollsarena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: United Nordic 35% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG United Nordic 1.23 / Orgryte IS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: United Nordic attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 0.936 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
United Nordic xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Orgryte IS xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does United Nordic vs Orgryte IS kick off?
United Nordic vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 November 2023 at Södertälje Fotbollsarena.
What was the final score in United Nordic vs Orgryte IS?
United Nordic 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is United Nordic vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena.
What competition is United Nordic vs Orgryte IS part of?
United Nordic vs Orgryte IS is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win United Nordic vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives United Nordic a 35% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in United Nordic vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both United Nordic and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will United Nordic vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are United Nordic and Orgryte IS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Orgryte IS away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates United Nordic's attack at 0.85x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus United Nordic's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.72
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
United Nordic xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
Orgryte IS xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for United Nordic vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are United Nordic and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for United Nordic and 1.29 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for United Nordic vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
United Nordic
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between United Nordic and Orgryte IS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
United Nordic
0
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, United Nordic have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did United Nordic and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Orgryte IS 1-0 United Nordic.
Who has won more matches between United Nordic and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = United Nordic home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out United Nordic 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat United Nordic 0-1 at Södertälje Fotbollsarena, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting United Nordic 1.23 xG and Orgryte IS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. United Nordic fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of United Nordic attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Orgryte IS attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it United Nordic 35% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 38%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.