Kalmar FF 0-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kalmar FF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalmar FF have posted 5W 3D 2L at Guldfågeln Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.30 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalmar FF lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus Mjallby AIF 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalmar FF 41% | Mjallby AIF 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.04 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.819 / defence 0.970 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.001 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.223. Data: 51 Kalmar FF games / 51 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 32% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 39%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 50% | Mjallby AIF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 32% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Kalmar FF 1.04 / Mjallby AIF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.819 / def 0.970 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.001 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 32% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.00x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.22
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.19 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 23W 12D 16L from 51 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 18L across 51 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.39 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 15W 5D 5L from 25 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 11W 5D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.04 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Kalmar FF) and 24% (Mjallby AIF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Kalmar FF and 28% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 44%; Mjallby AIF in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 24% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 28% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 0-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.04 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 32% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 39%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 41%, Mjallby AIF 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.59 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.