IF Elfsborg 0-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IF Elfsborg's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kalmar FF's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in IF Elfsborg's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Jul 2023, ended IF Elfsborg 4–0 Kalmar FF — a IF Elfsborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 50% versus Kalmar FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 52% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.17 xG and Kalmar FF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.303 / defence 0.727 | Kalmar FF attack 0.903 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.261. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.303 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg have a tight defence (rating 0.727), which is pulling Kalmar FF's projected output down. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 52 games and Kalmar FF's last 52.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 68% | Draw 19% | Kalmar FF 13%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.47 | Draw 5.31 | Kalmar FF 7.71. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and Kalmar FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 40% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 68% | Draw 19% | Kalmar FF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG IF Elfsborg 2.17 / Kalmar FF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.303 / def 0.727 | Kalmar FF attack 0.903 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Kalmar FF xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 68% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.90x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 52 games and Kalmar FF's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.31
13%
7.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.00
0.83
Kalmar FF xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
7.71
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
67.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.83 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 28W 13D 11L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 23W 12D 17L from 52 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.56 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 26 home games (16W 7D 3L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 8W 7D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 13D 11L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.19 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won Kalmar FF 0-4 IF Elfsborg on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
5
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: IF Elfsborg 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, Kalmar FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IF Elfsborg's games and 58% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 73% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kalmar FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Elfsborg 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.17 xG and Kalmar FF 0.83 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.30 / defence 0.73 against Kalmar FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 68% | Draw 19% | Kalmar FF 13%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 52%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.87 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.