IF Brommapojkarna 2-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Brommapojkarna face Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kalmar FF travel to Grimsta IP to take on IF Brommapojkarna in Allsvenskan (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Kalmar FF have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Kalmar FF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended IF Brommapojkarna 3–1 Kalmar FF — a IF Brommapojkarna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 62% versus Kalmar FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 64% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 xG and Kalmar FF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.808 / defence 1.149 | Kalmar FF attack 0.780 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.187. Kalmar FF's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 20 games and Kalmar FF's last 50.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 42% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 30%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.39 | Draw 3.61 | Kalmar FF 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 50% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 21 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 42% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 / Kalmar FF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.808 / def 1.149 | Kalmar FF attack 0.780 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Kalmar FF xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 42% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.81x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 20 games and Kalmar FF's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.61
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.36
1.06
Kalmar FF xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.06 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 7D 16L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 1.56 PPG from 50 outings (22W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.76 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 16W 3D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.24 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 27W 7D 16L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 22W 12D 16L in their last 50 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.04 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.12 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
IF Brommapojkarna have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Oct 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna won Kalmar FF 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Kalmar FF 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 64%, Kalmar FF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 48% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 56% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 48% of Kalmar FF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 72% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 xG and Kalmar FF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against Kalmar FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 42% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 30%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 64%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.76 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.