Mjallby AIF 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mjallby AIF face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hammarby FF — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.70 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Mjallby AIF have won 0, Hammarby FF 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Mjallby AIF 0–0 Hammarby FF — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 42% versus Hammarby FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 36% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.05 xG and Hammarby FF 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.786 / defence 0.884 | Hammarby FF attack 0.747 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.187. Mjallby AIF's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Hammarby FF's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 50 games and Hammarby FF's last 50.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.44 | Draw 3.11 | Hammarby FF 3.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hammarby FF's lower xG of 0.78 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and Hammarby FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 30% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 21 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.05 / Hammarby FF 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.786 / def 0.884 | Hammarby FF attack 0.747 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Hammarby FF xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 41% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 50 games and Hammarby FF's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.11
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.83
0.78
Hammarby FF xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.78 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 19W 14D 17L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 24W 13D 13L from 50 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.42 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 9D 8L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 7W 7D 11L from their last 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.70 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 24W 13D 13L in their last 50 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.32 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won Mjallby AIF 0-3 Hammarby FF.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Hammarby FF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 36%; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 36% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 64% of Hammarby FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 0-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.05 xG and Hammarby FF 0.78 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.79 / defence 0.88 against Hammarby FF attack 0.75 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 27%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 36%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.