Kalmar FF 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kalmar FF face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
AIK Stockholm travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kalmar FF stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, AIK Stockholm have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AIK Stockholm's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 1.20 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Kalmar FF have won 2, AIK Stockholm 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Kalmar FF 1–1 AIK Stockholm — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus AIK Stockholm 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 40% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.12 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.939 / defence 1.038 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.870 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.245. Data: built from Kalmar FF's last 47 games and AIK Stockholm's last 47.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 36%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.82 | Draw 3.47 | AIK Stockholm 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kalmar FF 50% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 18 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Kalmar FF 1.12 / AIK Stockholm 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.939 / def 1.038 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.870 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
AIK Stockholm xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Kalmar FF 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 18) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 35% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.94x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kalmar FF's last 47 games and AIK Stockholm's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.47
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.24
1.12
AIK Stockholm xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.12 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 47 games, going 22W 10D 15L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.43 PPG from 47 outings (18W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.62 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 15W 3D 5L across their last 23 home games, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.28 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Kalmar FF (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.09 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from November 2020. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kalmar FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 35%, AIK Stockholm 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Kalmar FF) and 52% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 52% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 61% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.12 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.12 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 36%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 40%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.62 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.