Sirius 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sirius face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 17). Kick-off is Monday 31 July 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sirius — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AIK Stockholm stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AIK Stockholm away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sirius at 1.20 PPG versus AIK Stockholm's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sirius have won 0, AIK Stockholm 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Sirius 0–0 AIK Stockholm — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 46% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 50% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.086 / defence 1.297 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.904 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.244. Sirius's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AIK Stockholm's projected output up. Data: built from Sirius's last 46 games and AIK Stockholm's last 46.
Result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 37%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.66 | Draw 3.93 | AIK Stockholm 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sirius 60% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 17 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 31 July 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sirius 1.47 / AIK Stockholm 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.086 / def 1.297 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.904 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Sirius (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.46
AIK Stockholm xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sirius vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 31 July 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 17) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 38% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sirius's last 46 games and AIK Stockholm's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.93
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.93
1.46
AIK Stockholm xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sirius vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sirius and 1.46 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 13D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 17W 13D 16L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.13 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 3D 12L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 5D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.28 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Sirius (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Sirius vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.17 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Sirius vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Sirius 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 48%, AIK Stockholm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sirius) and 56% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 26% of games; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sirius vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sirius and AIK Stockholm matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sirius's recent matches and 61% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sirius and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sirius's recent games and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sirius's recent matches and 65% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.46 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.09 / defence 1.30 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 38% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 37%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 50%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.13 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.