IF Brommapojkarna 0-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Brommapojkarna face IFK Varnamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo meet at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
IF Brommapojkarna (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IFK Varnamo away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, IF Brommapojkarna edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2023, ended IF Brommapojkarna 1–0 IFK Varnamo — a IF Brommapojkarna win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 62% versus IFK Varnamo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 64% | IFK Varnamo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.05 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.723 / defence 1.098 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.970 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.238. IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 17 games and IFK Varnamo's last 47.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 43%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.36 | Draw 3.63 | IFK Varnamo 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 60% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 18 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.05 / IFK Varnamo 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.723 / def 1.098 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.970 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
IFK Varnamo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 18) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 30% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.72x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.97x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 17 games and IFK Varnamo's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.63
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.37
1.32
IFK Varnamo xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.32 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 26W 6D 15L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 15W 11D 21L from 47 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, IF Brommapojkarna are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Varnamo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2.09 PPG from their last 23 home games (15W 3D 5L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 7W 5D 11L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 26W 6D 15L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.09 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 19 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2025: IFK Varnamo 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 65%, IFK Varnamo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for IF Brommapojkarna and 56% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 56% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 70% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.05 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.32 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.72 / defence 1.10 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 43%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 64%, IFK Varnamo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.