Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC host Mjallby AIF at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Varberg Energi Arena, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mjallby AIF — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 2 for Mjallby AIF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 53% versus Mjallby AIF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.90 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.726 / defence 1.328 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.969 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.232. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 47 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 53%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Mjallby AIF 1.89. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 7 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.90 / Mjallby AIF 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.726 / def 1.328 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.969 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Mjallby AIF xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 7 August 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
Record (7 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 2W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
21%
4.68
25%
3.97
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.59
Mjallby AIF xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
4%
22.83
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.2 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.59 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 47 games, going 11W 12D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.38 PPG from 47 outings (17W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 5W 8D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.04 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 11W 12D 24L in their last 47 games (0.96 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
3
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Varbergs BoIS FC 44% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 26%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 26% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 44%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 44% of games; Mjallby AIF in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 26% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 26% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.90 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.59 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 53%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.