IFK Varnamo 0-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Varnamo welcome Degerfors IF to Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 19). Kick-off is Monday 14 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 1.30 PPG versus Degerfors IF's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Degerfors IF and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Jul 2023, ended IFK Varnamo 2–0 Degerfors IF — a IFK Varnamo win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IFK Varnamo trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 52% versus Degerfors IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.73 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.827 / defence 0.993 | Degerfors IF attack 0.807 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.202. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.473 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Varnamo's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 48 games and Degerfors IF's last 48.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 55% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 21%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.81 | Draw 4.21 | Degerfors IF 4.78. The model has a clear lean to IFK Varnamo (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Varnamo's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 50% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 19 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 55% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.73 / Degerfors IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.827 / def 0.993 | Degerfors IF attack 0.807 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 14 August 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 19) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 55% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.83) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 48 games and Degerfors IF's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.21
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.69
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.96 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 11D 21L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 12W 12D 24L from 48 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.23 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 4D 16L from their last 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 12W 12D 24L in their last 48 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Degerfors IF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.30 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 18 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2025: IFK Varnamo 3-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 52%, Degerfors IF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (IFK Varnamo) and 61% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 26% of games; Degerfors IF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of IFK Varnamo's games and 61% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 61% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 83% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.73 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Degerfors IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.47, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 55% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 21%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.23 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.