Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Varnamo make the trip to Varberg Energi Arena to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
IFK Varnamo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IFK Varnamo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, IFK Varnamo are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, IFK Varnamo edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 1–3 IFK Varnamo — a IFK Varnamo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 51% versus IFK Varnamo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | IFK Varnamo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.88 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.655 / defence 1.446 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.046 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.198. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating of 0.655 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.446 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Varnamo's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 49 games and IFK Varnamo's last 49.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 18% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 59%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 5.60 | Draw 4.40 | IFK Varnamo 1.68. The model has a clear lean to IFK Varnamo (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 20 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 18% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.88 / IFK Varnamo 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.655 / def 1.446 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.046 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
IFK Varnamo xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 18% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.66x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (1.05x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 49 games and IFK Varnamo's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
18%
5.60
23%
4.40
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.81
IFK Varnamo xG
5.60
18%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
3%
34.30
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.81 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 49 games, going 11W 12D 26L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, IFK Varnamo sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (16W 11D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.20 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 5W 8D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Varnamo have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 11W 12D 26L in their last 49 games (0.92 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.96 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won Varbergs BoIS FC 3-0 IFK Varnamo on 3 Jul 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: IFK Varnamo 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 42%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 54% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 46% of games; IFK Varnamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 54% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 71% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Varnamo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.88 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.81 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.45 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 18% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 59%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 0.92 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.