Hammarby FF 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Hammarby FF have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

IF Elfsborg — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

IF Elfsborg away from home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Form points away from home here. IF Elfsborg's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hammarby FF's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hammarby FF, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jul 2023, ended Hammarby FF 0–2 IF Elfsborg — a IF Elfsborg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hammarby FF trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus IF Elfsborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IF Elfsborg 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.198 / defence 0.962 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.505 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.221. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack rating of 1.505, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 48 games and IF Elfsborg's last 48.

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 30% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 46%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 3.30 | Draw 4.30 | IF Elfsborg 2.15. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 70% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 50% (last 10 away games).

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