Djurgardens IF 0-4 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Djurgardens IF face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Djurgardens IF have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Elfsborg away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 2.60 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Djurgardens IF, 0 for IF Elfsborg and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Djurgardens IF 1–1 IF Elfsborg — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 51% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.198 / defence 0.602 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.346 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.279. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack rating of 1.346, which lifts their away xG to 1.04. Djurgardens IF have a tight defence (rating 0.602), which is pulling IF Elfsborg's projected output down. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 46 games and IF Elfsborg's last 45.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 3.28 | IF Elfsborg 3.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 30% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 16 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.42 / IF Elfsborg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.198 / def 0.602 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.346 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
IF Elfsborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 4 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 16) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.20) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.35x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 46 games and IF Elfsborg's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.28
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.46
1.04
IF Elfsborg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.04 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 25W 9D 11L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 24W 13D 8L from 45 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.89 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.41 PPG from their last 22 home games (17W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 6D 5L from their last 22 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 2.00 scored and 1.02 conceded. IF Elfsborg's attacking output running into Djurgardens IF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 9D 11L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 13D 8L in their last 45 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.41 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: IF Elfsborg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won Djurgardens IF 0-4 IF Elfsborg on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 32%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Djurgardens IF) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 73% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 0-4 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.20 / defence 0.60 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.35 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 26%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 51%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.87 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.