IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Brommapojkarna face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF meet at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 July 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hammarby FF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hammarby FF have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Hammarby FF edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Jun 2023, ended IF Brommapojkarna 1–2 Hammarby FF — a Hammarby FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 64% versus Hammarby FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.689 / defence 1.202 | Hammarby FF attack 0.853 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.294. IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hammarby FF's projected output up. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 15 games and Hammarby FF's last 46.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.68 | Draw 3.04 | Hammarby FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 60% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 16 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 / Hammarby FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.689 / def 1.202 | Hammarby FF attack 0.853 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 21 July 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 16) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 27% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.85x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 15 games and Hammarby FF's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
27%
3.68
33%
3.04
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.33 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 45 games, going 25W 6D 14L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.67 PPG from 45 outings (21W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.67 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.78 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 25W 6D 14L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.05 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Hammarby FF 3-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 68%, Hammarby FF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 46% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 32%; Hammarby FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 41% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 46% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 68% of Hammarby FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Hammarby FF 1-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Hammarby FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 15/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.80 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.