BK Hacken 3-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Elfsborg are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 74% and IF Elfsborg 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 67% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.79 xG and IF Elfsborg 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.760 / defence 1.041 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.592 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.248. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.760 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.592 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 BK Hacken games / 46 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 33% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 44%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | IF Elfsborg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.86 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 90% | IF Elfsborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 33% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG BK Hacken 1.79 / IF Elfsborg 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.760 / def 1.041 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.592 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
2.07
IF Elfsborg xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 3 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 33% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Record (4 meetings): BK Hacken 1W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.76) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
33%
3.00
22%
4.46
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.86
2.07
IF Elfsborg xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.77
Clean Sheet
13%
7.90
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
4%
23.71
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for BK Hacken and 2.07 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 28W 12D 6L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 25W 13D 8L from 46 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 2.09 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 5D 5L from 22 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 2.04 scored and 1.00 conceded. BK Hacken's scoring rate against IF Elfsborg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 28W 12D 6L in their last 46 games (2.09 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 13D 8L in their last 46 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.23 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.86 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 82%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for BK Hacken and 54% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of BK Hacken's games and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of BK Hacken's matches and 54% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IF Elfsborg 3-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.79 xG and IF Elfsborg 2.07 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.76 / defence 1.04 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.59 / defence 0.72, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 33% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 44%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 67%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 2.09 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.