IF Elfsborg 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
IFK Goteborg have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in IF Elfsborg's favour (2.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, IF Elfsborg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2022, ended IF Elfsborg 3–1 IFK Goteborg — a IF Elfsborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus IFK Goteborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 54% | IFK Goteborg 43%). Note also that IFK Goteborg surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while IF Elfsborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.398 / defence 0.676 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.677 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.290. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.398 — their 2.09 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Goteborg's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. IF Elfsborg have a tight defence (rating 0.676), which is pulling IFK Goteborg's projected output down. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 44 games and IFK Goteborg's last 44.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 8%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.41 | Draw 4.72 | IFK Goteborg 12.80. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (71%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 40% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 15 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG IF Elfsborg 2.09 / IFK Goteborg 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.398 / def 0.676 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.677 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.59
IFK Goteborg xG
41%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 15) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 71% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 8% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.40x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.68x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 44 games and IFK Goteborg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 3-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
71%
1.41
21%
4.72
8%
12.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.68
0.59
IFK Goteborg xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
12.80
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
1%
103.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.59 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 24W 12D 8L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 15W 8D 21L from 44 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.05 PPG from their last 22 home games (13W 6D 3L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 3D 12L from their last 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 12D 8L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 8D 21L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.05 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: IFK Goteborg 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, IFK Goteborg 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 36% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 77% of IFK Goteborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.59 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.40 / defence 0.68 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 8%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 54%, IFK Goteborg 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.