Incheon United 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Incheon United at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Incheon United face Daegu FC.

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Full Analysis

Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Daegu FC in K League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Incheon United have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Incheon United at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Incheon United against 1.50 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Incheon United edge it 2 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Incheon United 1–2 Daegu FC — a Daegu FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Daegu FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.37 xG and Daegu FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.795 / defence 0.891 | Daegu FC attack 0.962 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.151. Incheon United's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Data: built from Incheon United's last 39 games and Daegu FC's last 39.

Result probabilities: Incheon United 44% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.25 | Draw 3.35 | Daegu FC 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Incheon United 50% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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