Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeonbuk Motors face Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors welcome Gwangju FC to Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 07:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gwangju FC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeonbuk Motors at 1.50 PPG versus Gwangju FC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 45% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jeonbuk Motors 32% | Gwangju FC 26%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Gwangju FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.44 xG and Gwangju FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.993 / defence 1.265 | Gwangju FC attack 0.876 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.138. Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gwangju FC's projected output up. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 39 games and Gwangju FC's last 39.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.53 | Draw 3.44 | Gwangju FC 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 60% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.44 / Gwangju FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.993 / def 1.265 | Gwangju FC attack 0.876 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Gwangju FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 40% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 0.99x the league average against Gwangju FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 39 games and Gwangju FC's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.44
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.70
1.26
Gwangju FC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.26 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 16W 9D 13L from 38 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Gwangju FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 11L across 38 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.50 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 10W 4D 5L from their last 19 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gwangju FC's away record stands at 7W 7D 5L across their last 19 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Gwangju FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.79 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors won Jeonbuk Motors 4-0 Gwangju FC.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
1
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Gwangju FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Jeonbuk Motors 2-2 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Jeonbuk Motors and 26% for Gwangju FC.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Gwangju FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.44 xG and Gwangju FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against Gwangju FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 32%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.