Incheon United 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1 (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Incheon United have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Jeju United FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Incheon United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jeju United FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Incheon United, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Incheon United 2–1 Jeju United FC — a Incheon United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Jeju United FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.34 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.899 / defence 0.868 | Jeju United FC attack 0.893 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.095. Data: built from Incheon United's last 38 games and Jeju United FC's last 38.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 46% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.17 | Draw 3.11 | Jeju United FC 4.61. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Incheon United 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 46% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Incheon United 1.34 / Jeju United FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.899 / def 0.868 | Jeju United FC attack 0.893 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Incheon United vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 46% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.89x) against Incheon United's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Incheon United's last 38 games and Jeju United FC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.11
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.19
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Incheon United vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.85 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 27W 29D 20L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 24W 21D 31L from 76 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Incheon United against 1.22 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 38 home games (14W 15D 9L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 14W 7D 17L from their last 38 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Incheon United (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Incheon United vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 27W 29D 20L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeju United FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.50 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Incheon United vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Incheon United 3-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 47%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Incheon United) and 53% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Incheon United vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Incheon United and Jeju United FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Incheon United's recent matches and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Incheon United and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Incheon United's recent games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Incheon United's recent matches and 66% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.34 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Jeju United FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 46% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 22%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.45 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.