Jeju United FC 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 0.70 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Jeju United FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 48% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 2.02 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.020 / defence 0.960 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.134 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.194. Gimcheon Sangmu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Jeju United FC games / 6 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 53% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.35. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 40% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 53% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Jeju United FC 2.02 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.020 / def 0.960 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.134 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 53% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (1.02) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
3.33
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
3%
32.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.30 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 11D 18L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 8W 14D 18L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.10 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 9D 8L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.10 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jeju United FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeju United FC's games and 65% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeju United FC 0-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 2.02 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.30, drawn from 39/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 53% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 48%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.10 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.