Damac 2-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Damac welcome Al-Fateh to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Damac) versus 0.90 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Damac, 1 for Al-Fateh and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Fateh 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Fateh 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.982 / defence 1.116 | Al-Fateh attack 1.149 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.403. Data: 33 Damac games / 33 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 50%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 2.00. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al-Fateh 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Damac 1.24 / Al-Fateh 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.982 / def 1.116 | Al-Fateh attack 1.149 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Al-Fateh xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fateh part of?
Damac vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 26% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Damac and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
26%
3.81
24%
4.24
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Damac xG
Total xG
3.04
1.80
Al-Fateh xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
4%
23.02
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Damac and 1.80 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac's recent record stands at 9W 11D 13L from 33 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 14L across 33 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Damac have managed 5W 6D 5L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 8W 1D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.58 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 14W 5D 14L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
6
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Damac and 81% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Damac's matches and 81% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Damac and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Damac and Al-Fateh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.80 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 50%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Fateh 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.