Al-Raed 3-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al Riyadh have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Riyadh are 0.53 PPG clear of Al-Raed in recent Pro League fixtures (1.33 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Raed 0% | Al Riyadh 33%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 67% | Al Riyadh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Riyadh 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.897 / defence 1.267 | Al Riyadh attack 0.946 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.442. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Al-Raed games / 3 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 29% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Al Riyadh 2.13. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al Riyadh 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 29% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Raed 1.33 / Al Riyadh 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.897 / def 1.267 | Al Riyadh attack 0.946 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Riyadh xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Raed 3 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 29% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.95x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
29%
3.40
24%
4.19
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.06
1.73
Al Riyadh xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
5%
19.14
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.73 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Riyadh are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Raed or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Raed won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2025, when Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al-Raed) and 33% (Al Riyadh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Raed and 67% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 33%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 100% of games; Al Riyadh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Riyadh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Raed's matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Riyadh 3-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Riyadh 1.73 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Al Riyadh attack 0.95 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 29% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 47%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 67%, Al Riyadh 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Raed winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Raed scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.