Al-Fateh 5-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 4 games: 4W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2022, ended Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 75% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.28 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.951 / defence 1.346 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.067 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.344. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 34 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 4.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.96 | Draw 4.50 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.90. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.28 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 4 games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al-Fateh 1.28 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.951 / def 1.346 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.067 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fateh 5 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.07x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from Al-Fateh's last 34 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
25%
3.96
22%
4.50
52%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.21
1.93
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.90
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.89
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
4%
27.27
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.93 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W across their last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Fateh (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won Al-Fateh 5-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Al-Fateh 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Fateh and 50% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Fateh's games and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Fateh's matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.28 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.93 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.35 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.