Al Okhdood 0-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Taawon travel to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to take on Al Okhdood in Pro League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 3 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 0W 1D 2L — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Taawon are 2.17 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.33), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Al Okhdood's games and 60% of Al Taawon's (from Al Okhdood's last 3 games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taawon trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 67% versus Al Taawon 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Okhdood 33% | Al Taawon 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.83 xG and Al Taawon 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.851 / defence 1.309 | Al Taawon attack 1.021 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.403. Al Taawon bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 3 games and Al Taawon's last 33.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 16% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 62%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 6.33 | Draw 4.48 | Al Taawon 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 67% (last 3 games) | Al Taawon 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 16% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Al Okhdood 0.83 / Al Taawon 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.851 / def 1.309 | Al Taawon attack 1.021 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Al Taawon xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 16% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 3 games and Al Taawon's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
16%
6.33
22%
4.48
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.71
1.88
Al Taawon xG
6.33
16%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
2%
41.29
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.88 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Al Okhdood or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al Taawon have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 67%, Al Taawon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al Okhdood and 0% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 67%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al Taawon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 33% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 0% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 67% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.83 xG and Al Taawon 1.88 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Taawon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.85 / defence 1.31 against Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 16% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 62%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 33%, Al Taawon 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.