Al Taee 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Hazm at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taee at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taee register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Taee have won 2, Al-Hazm 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taee in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 46% versus Al-Hazm 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 54% | Al-Hazm 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.83 xG and Al-Hazm 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.956 / defence 1.312 | Al-Hazm attack 0.979 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.498. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Al Taee games / 22 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hazm at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 60% | Al-Hazm 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Al Taee 1.83 / Al-Hazm 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.956 / def 1.312 | Al-Hazm attack 0.979 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Al-Hazm xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Al Taee 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hazm?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hazm in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
36%
2.75
24%
4.20
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.76
1.92
Al-Hazm xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
5%
18.83
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.92 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taee come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 3D 14L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.68 PPG from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 0.82 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Taee's home form reads 4W 1D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (0W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taee are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.14 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 9D 11L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taee's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when Al Taee won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Taee
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Hazm?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taee at 60%, Al-Hazm at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al Taee and 50% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Taee's games and 80% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al Taee's matches and 50% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.83 xG and Al-Hazm 1.92 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Al-Hazm attack 0.98 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 40%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 54%, Al-Hazm 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 0.82 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.