Al Okhdood 2-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 6W 0D 4L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 9W 0D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Okhdood lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 43% versus Al-Nassr 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Okhdood 57% | Al-Nassr 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.92 xG and Al-Nassr 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.929 / defence 1.147 | Al-Nassr attack 1.621 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.370. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.621 — the away xG of 2.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Al Okhdood games / 60 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 11% | Draw 17% | Al-Nassr 72%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 9.09 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Nassr 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 11% | Draw 17% | Al-Nassr 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Okhdood 0.92 / Al-Nassr 2.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.929 / def 1.147 | Al-Nassr attack 1.621 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.55
Al-Nassr xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 9 May 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Al Okhdood 2 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 11% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 72% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.62x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.55.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-3 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
11%
9.34
17%
5.72
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.47
2.55
Al-Nassr xG
9.34
11%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
8%
12.78
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
1%
119.34
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.55 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 8W 4D 18L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 24W 2D 4L across 30 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 6W 0D 9L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 13W 0D 2L across 15 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 3.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Al-Nassr
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 8W 4D 18L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 24W 2D 4L in their last 30 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-9 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 47%, Al-Nassr 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Okhdood and 80% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 33%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Okhdood's matches and 80% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Okhdood 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 2-3 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.92 xG and Al-Nassr 2.55 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Al-Nassr attack 1.62 / defence 0.68, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 11% | Draw 17% | Al-Nassr 72%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 57%, Al-Nassr 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.