Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al Okhdood at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 5D 3L at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium this season.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Okhdood winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 45% versus Al Okhdood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al Okhdood 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Okhdood 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.797 / defence 0.876 | Al Okhdood attack 0.556 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.391. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Al-Ettifaq games / 31 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Al Okhdood 6.25. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.42 / Al Okhdood 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.797 / def 0.876 | Al Okhdood attack 0.556 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Al Okhdood xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 53% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.80x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
53%
1.87
30%
3.28
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.10
0.68
Al Okhdood xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
25.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.68 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 11D 9L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (8W 4D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 5W 6D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.94 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 11W 11D 9L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 8W 4D 19L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 60%, Al Okhdood 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 53% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Okhdood in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 40% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 53% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Okhdood 0.68 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 0.88 against Al Okhdood attack 0.56 / defence 1.25, drawn from 61/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 16%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 39%, Al Okhdood 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.