Al Riyadh 0-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Riyadh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 9 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 3W 4D 3L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 0 for Al Taawon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Riyadh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 57% versus Al Taawon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 53% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.83 xG and Al Taawon 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.722 / defence 1.065 | Al Taawon attack 0.972 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.378. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Al Riyadh games / 60 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 21% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 60% | Al Taawon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 21% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Riyadh 0.83 / Al Taawon 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.722 / def 1.065 | Al Taawon attack 0.972 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al Taawon xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 9 May 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Al Riyadh 0 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 21% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
21%
4.80
29%
3.43
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.26
1.43
Al Taawon xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.43 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 8D 15L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 7W 6D 2L from 15 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.60 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 53%, Al Taawon 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Riyadh) and 33% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 40%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 53% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Riyadh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Al Riyadh and Al Taawon drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.83 xG and Al Taawon 1.43 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Taawon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 21% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 50%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 53%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.