Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Match Analysis

Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Al Shabab have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.70 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Al Shabab 0–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 47% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 47% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.242 / defence 0.895 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.185 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.407. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 60 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 30.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.06 | Draw 4.18 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.63. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% (last 10 away games).

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