Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.70 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 47% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 47% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.242 / defence 0.895 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.185 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.407. Data: 60 Al Shabab games / 30 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.57. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Shabab 2.01 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.242 / def 0.895 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.185 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Shabab 1 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 48% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.18
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.50
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
4%
27.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.49 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 11W 8D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 16W 7D 7L from 30 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.97 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 16W 7D 7L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al Shabab and 80% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Shabab's games and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al Shabab's matches and 80% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.19 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 47%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.