Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Raed to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 23 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Raed stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad FC at 1.30 PPG versus Al-Raed's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Raed, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Al-Ittihad FC 3–0 Al-Raed — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Ittihad FC an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 39% versus Al-Raed 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Al-Raed 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.03 xG and Al-Raed 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.296 / defence 1.079 | Al-Raed attack 0.815 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.369. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.296 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 46 games and Al-Raed's last 47.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 | Draw 4.49 | Al-Raed 4.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ittihad FC 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.03 / Al-Raed 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.296 / def 1.079 | Al-Raed attack 0.815 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Raed xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 56% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 46 games and Al-Raed's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.49
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.20
Al-Raed xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
3%
35.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.20 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 30W 10D 6L from 46 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 23L across 46 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 16W 3D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across their last 22 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 30W 10D 6L in their last 46 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Raed.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2025: Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 32%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 59% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Al-Raed in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 59% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 73% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.03 xG and Al-Raed 1.20 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Raed outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Al-Raed attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al-Raed win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al-Raed 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Al-Raed winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.