Al-Raed 0-1 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Damac at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Damac encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Raed host Damac at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 15 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Raed — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Raed have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Damac have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Damac — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Damac and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended Al-Raed 5–0 Damac — a Al-Raed win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Damac in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 54% versus Damac 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 67% | Damac 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Raed surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Damac have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.47 xG and Damac 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.935 / defence 1.087 | Damac attack 1.062 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.398. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 46 games and Damac's last 46.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 26% | Damac 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.94 | Draw 3.89 | Damac 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 40% (last 10 home games) | Damac 60% (last 10 away games).

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